Industrialização e desenvolvimento econômico: os efeitos das interações com o investimento fixo e com o crédito disponível

Abstract

This research demonstrated that the discussion regarding the relevance of the manufacturing industry to economic growth and development still has elements to be revisited, because some relationships may be being disconsidered in the relevant empirical literature. Several authors have empirically evidenced the importance of manufacturing to the economic growth of countries. However, the empirical review carried out detected that, despite the dedication to the topic, the relationship between manufacturing and fixed investment, and the relationship between manufacturing and available bank credit, are not considered. Thus, the research aims to respond to the problem pointed out: are the effects of the manufacturing sector on economic growth and development enhanced by investment spending and bank credit offered? As an objective, it was established to measure the interaction effects of the manufacturing industry with fixed investment and bank credit available for economic growth and the development of nations. Indeed, to achieve this aim, the research uses structured econometric models based on panel data. The dynamic panel data model proved to be more appropriate in a sample containing 119 countries that held 96% of the world's GDP. When countries' fixed investment values move very close to their maximum value in the sample, it is assumed that for every 1 percentage point change in the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP, the GDP per capita growth rate rises by average 0.81%. When a country increases investment spending, the positive effect of its manufacturing sector on economic growth and development is enhanced: fixed investment can cause the average effect of the manufacturing sector's share on the GDP growth rate per capita is quadrupled. Such results are consistent with the theory of structural change. As available bank credit moves very close to its maximum value in the sample, for every 1 percentage point change in the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP, the GDP per capita growth rate rises by average 1.38%. When a country's financial banking system makes more credit available to companies, the positive effect of its manufacturing sector on economic growth is enhanced: the volume of available credit can cause the average effect of the participation of the manufacturing sector in the growth rate of GDP per capita is almost quadrupled. These results corroborate assumptions contained in the post-Keynesian approach of a monetary production economy. The amplifying effects in both interactions are of exceptional importance, since, as the dependent variable is the rate of growth of GDP per capita, development matters are additionally implied. The results obtained indicate that the research innovated and added a new page to the specific literature. Empirical evidence, in addition to corroborating the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth and development, deepens the results based on the proposition of tested interactions.