Determinantes do investimento estrangeiro de curto prazo no Brasil de 1999 a 2015

Abstract

Global capital flows are associated with economic benefits and ravages. Short-term portfolio investments, especially for its intrinsic volatility, lead to a study in order to analyze the determinants of their inflow into countries susceptible to these movements, such as the Latin Americans, specifically Brazil. Brazil’s economy experienced domestic and international crisis during 1999 to 2015, occurring a tough volatility on capital flows fathering changes in exchange rate and in assets priced in Brazilian real. With that said, the objective of this paper is to analyze the determinants of short-term capital inflows in fixed income and equities in Brazil during the period of economic stabilization. By applying the VAR/VEC model, the empirical analysis suggests that capital inflows into equities are associated to higher commodity prices and higher stock indexes, besides GDP and inflation in minor degree. When it comes to fixed income, the inflow is associated to the increase in the Selic rate.