Análise de cenários na saúde suplementar: um estudo sobre a entrada de capital estrangeiro a partir da perspectiva de prestadores de serviços

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze possible scenarios and the economic, social, political, technological and legal effects arising from the entry of foreign capital in the Brazilian supplementary health system, from the standpoint of health service providers, considering the time frame up to 2015. It has been done through qualitative exploratory research, based on scenario analysis. Experts and managers from this supplementary health market provided the required data for the scenario analysis. The main actors from this market were represented by: the Brazilian National Agency of Supplemental Health, Brazilian health insurance companies either with or without foreign capital shares, and Brazilian health care providers. Semi-structured interviews were used as data collection technique, and information was extracted by content analysis. As a result, four scenarios were created, considering the horizon of 2025, based on uncertainties about the ANS' activities in the regulatory process and the investments in service quality, certification and safety. From the analysis of scenarios, also validated by experts, was found that providers have to invest in actions to improve health policies, discussions with service provider remuneration model, promotion and prevention in health, improve quality of care and the development of population studies to avoid harmful effects of entering foreign capital in this market.