Elaboração de um modelo de previsão de insolvência para micro e pequenas empresas utilizando indicadores contábeis

Abstract

This study, in its theoretical and practical scope, aims to present a model for prediction of insolvency that portray the reality of micro and small enterprises (MEPs), based on the use of discriminant analysis and factor. To achieve this goal there was a qualitative research with professionals in the accounting office of Rio Grande do Sul, obtaining information accounting of 104 MEPs in the period 1995 to 2007. For data analysis, SPSS software was adopted 10, whose application of factor analysis reduced the number of pain states accounting for 25 to 5 factors. For the construction of the discriminant function Z, which allows to identify which group of companies that make each company belongs to the sample, we used the discriminant analysis. The model validation was done using the method known as crossvalidation, ie the subdivision of the original sample, one for defining the model and one for its validation. The degree of prediction of the model reached 96.15% of accuracy, representing a good index for predi