A influência das mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição espacial de guildas reprodutivas de anuros da Mata Atlântica

Abstract

Climate change has been identified as a major challenge contributing significantly to global biodiversity loss. Its impacts affect all levels of biotic organization, from organisms to biomes. Rapid migration and directional selection caused by climate change can reduce the genetic diversity of populations and thus affect ecosystem functioning. In addition, climate change alters species phenology and interspecies relationships, altering community structure and associated ecosystem functions. The spatial migration and dispersal patterns of biodiversity will also be affected as species tend to move to higher elevations and/or higher latitudes. Tropical and subtropical environments and highly stressed regions exacerbate the above impacts, with sensitive taxa such as Atlantic Forest-dwelling amphibians being particularly affected. The objective of this dissertation was to investigate the effects of climate change on the distribution patterns and species richness of two anuran breeding guilds in the Atlantic Rainforest. In this sense, the study aimed to identify possible spatial, altitudinal, and latitudinal patterns in the guilds in response to future climate change under different scenarios. The ecological niche of 44 species, divided into two breeding guilds, was modeled using five bioclimatic variables for three future periods: 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. A species distribution and prediction modeling approach was used to generate temporally dynamic maps of species richness. The relationship between latitude and elevation and the species richness of each guild over time was evaluated using generalized linear models followed by analysis of variance. The results showed that the future distribution of species shifted spatially, but each breeding guild responded differently to climate change. It is understandable that there would be differences in responses among breeding guilds because the species studied have similar reproductive behavior but different ecological characteristics. This highlights the possibility that the current pattern of species richness is affecting anuran communities. In addition, these results suggest that environmental characteristics other than climatic variables may influence the structuring of anuran communities in the Atlantic Forest. This study represents an important advance in understanding the effects of climate change on the distribution of anurans breeding guilds. However, future studies using hierarchical models with landscape variables and addressing functional and phylogenetic diversity are essential to decipher the processes of forming patterns of species richness and to support systematic planning for anuran conservation in the Atlantic Forest.