Perda de alunos: sistema de detecção precoce na ANEAS

Abstract

Student attrition is a complex phenomenon that can have a negative impact on the education system. In private institutions, it is an important loss of income that can impact their sustainability. It is associated with factors that include non-compliance with people's expectations regarding their values and desires, in addition to multiple causes, related to objective and subjective factors and variables. These are related to economic, political, cultural contexts and educational systems, as well as educational institutions. In this context, the figure of Early Detection Systems (EDS) emerges, for the correct prediction of the risk of losing students, with a view to increasingly individualized intervention, as they start from student data, seeking to relate them to factors that indicate, in advance, this potential for loss. This study aims to analyze whether the early detection system (EDS), to be proposed and applied in the context of elementary school, final years of the schools of the Associação Nóbrega de Educação e Assistência Social (ANEAS), offers information that subsidizes early detection the loss of students. The research seeks to answer the following question: does the EDS applied in the context of ANEAS schools offer what answer as a support tool for educational managers in identifying potential loss of students in elementary school? It is a mixed approach, of documental and experimental types, using the Sinergia ERP as a database for the exploratory analysis and to establish the predictive model (EDS). The results of this study show that the proposed EDS is effective and, with experience and the conjunction of new attributes with greater information gain, it can be improved. This makes it possible to develop a tool that helps educational administration to identify potential student losses and allow actions to be taken to retain them.