Impacto econômico do Brexit por meio do modelo de equilíbrio geral computável: uma análise dos efeitos das barreiras não tarifárias

Abstract

In 2016, UK citizens went to the polls to vote on whether or not the country would remain in the European Union (EU). This process, named Brexit, marked the history of the European bloc, as it was the first time that a country requested its departure. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts on production, international trade and well-being in the UK and EU, from the consolidation of Brexit. In this research, the computable general equilibrium model was used, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, version 10, in order to simulate the impacts on production, trade and well-being for the economies directly involved, considering non-tariff barriers (NTBs). The results revealed that the United Kingdom would be the most affected by the rupture, with a reduction in the volume of traded goods, a drop in domestic production and a decrease in welfare – a drop in allocative efficiency and a deterioration in the terms of trade. It was identified that the EU would also be harmed by Brexit, but to a lesser extent due to its large common market. It was also observed that other regions would obtain trade and welfare advantages, such as the USA, China, Japan, Brazil, Latin America, Brazil and the Commonwealth.