Os efeitos dos acordos regionais e multilaterais de comércio sobre as exportações dos países menos desenvolvidos do mundo

Abstract

This study proposes to evaluate the effect of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), of the accession to the WTO and of the regional agreements in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) trade, considering the intensive and extensive trade margins. Using the PPML estimator in the traditional gravitational model and using bilateral 6-digit trade data (SH6), it was mainly identified that (i) the GSP had a positive and significant influence on the diversification of exports in the Least Developed Countries group; (ii) the effects of accession to the WTO also supported the diversification of exports, but to a lesser extent; (iii) regional trade agreements played no role in the reference specifications. Significant effects of the GSP and the accession to the WTO were also observed in an asymmetric way when evaluating in detail the sectors involved, with greater effect in the Ore and Textile sector. When unfolding the assessments for the LDC graduation status, it was observed that countries that are in the process of graduation benefit from intra-group agreements, maintaining the positive effect of the GSP and the WTO for countries that are not yet elected to graduation. Deepening the analysis for the geographic location and the effect behavior of multilateral agreements over time, it appears that Asian LDCs benefit from regional trade agreements, the GSP has a lasting general effect and the condition of accession to the WTO proves to be significant in the first nine years of the analyzed period.