Determinantes econômico-financeiros do ingresso de empresas em recuperação judicial no mercado brasileiro

Abstract

This study aims to identify the economic-financial determinants that signal the propensity of Brazilian companies to enter a judicial and/or extrajudicial recovery process. Likewise, it intends to propose recommendations for corporate practices related to the main variables that were statistically identified. According to Altman (1968, 1983, 2005) there were and there still are exponential studies in the prediction of insolvency, even being used in credit risk analysis by financial institutions and these brought an important theoretical basis for the advancement of this work. The work carried out was quantitative and to achieve the results, logistic regression on stacked data was used as an econometric technique for data analysis. The information used was from publicly-held, non-financial companies, which filed for judicial reorganization between 2005 and 2020. Following the chosen method, 5 different models were estimated in the construction of the results. Finally, it was concluded that the proposed models are of great importance in business management due to the probability of companies entering judicial and/or extrajudicial reorganization, as all of them presented statistically significant variables. Thus, it was possible to indicate the main economic-financial determinants of a crisis and propose corporate practices to mitigate insolvency.