Cenários prospectivos para a distribuição dos modais de transporte do setor petroquímico de segunda geração das regiões sul e sudeste do Brasil

Abstract

One of the biggest problems in Brazil is related to the transport infrastructure that is offered to the flow of products and supplies for all segments of the economy. The second generation petrochemical industry, the object of this study also presents the same problem: deliver to its clients the final product. This work - which focused on the development of a set of future scenarios related to the resizing of transport for the 2020 array - is intended to provide the study of possible solutions segment, medium and long term, linked to the transport mode sales. The development of these scenarios was the basis for the theory constructed by Schwartz (2000) and Van Der Heidjen (2009), which provided a vision and a breakdown of the scenario method. This technique of scenario development, this study aimed to scale in capital amount and volume up investment in CAP II imply that the variation in the percentage of participation of each mode of transport in the matrix in the developed scenarios. To develop this work, three premises had to be analyzed: PAC investments II following the same application rate of the PAC I, the rate of economic growth and the opinion of the experts interviewed. Articles and studies and subsequently related to the opinions of industry experts, gathered from the application of a semi-structured script of questions and analyzed by the method of content analysis were analyzed. Surveys and interviews investigated each transport mode available and their behavior according to each economic situation and available infrastructure. The next step was the development of three prospective scenarios in which we attempted to simulate as would the distribution of transportation modes in each scenario, taking into account the three above assumptions. Finally, we reached the final product of this work, which aims to offer the petrochemical segment forward solutions, perchance, may assist in the decision making of that sector with regard to the reduction of impacts caused by transport infrastructure deficit, which has the consequence of the delay in delivery of the final product to the consumer market.