Equações de oferta e demanda por exportações do Brasil: um estudo comparativo do setor de madeira e móveis

Abstract

This dissertation is about the estimation of export equations for both Brazilian total economy and Brazilian wood-furniture sector, using quarterly data, from 1985 to 2006. The econometric procedures use the Johansen’s co-integration concept associated to an error-correction model. Special attention is dedicated to a possible problem of instability in parameters resulting, mainly, from the impact of the opening

trade in the beginning of the period, from changes associated to the Real Plan and from the raise of the export prices in the end of the period. One of the most interesting aspects, related to the Brazilian trade opening, occurs in the export

demand where the foreign income starts to have relatively higher importance along the period when compared to the exchange rate. This change is present in the ambit of the wood-furniture sector, but it also stands out for the aggregate. Another important result, now related to export supply, shows the relation of significance between the main sources of exporter