Desenvolvimento de um método tentativo para estimativa de volumes de exportação brasileira de carne de frango com o auxílio do pensamento sistêmico e do planejamento de cenários

Abstract

With the increasing level of competitive in the world market the strategic planning and your dismemberment as production planning and the search of the optimizations of productive

resources are are one of the main goals of managers. For this planning is necessary to foresee the future needs of the market, which in the current business environment of constant change and is increasingly rapid. A correct orientation will increase the chances of obtaining good results will contribute to the growth of the organization (GOERGOFF, 1986). This dissertation presents a method to tentative estimates of volumes that starts by the assembly of a map system where the variables are linked, then they are evaluated by analysis of correlation and regression equations of creating a computer model is created. These simulations were validated statistically in relation to historical and future scenarios were developed, with possible behavior for the input variables, generating as a result of the viewing volume of Brazilian exports