Efeitos da disrupção logística global: uma análise por meio do modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a global logistical disruption that raised transport costs to very high levels, and reignited the discussion on globalization, international trade and the internationalization of production chains. This work proposes the simulation of a global logistics disruption, in order to analyze the effects on countries and regions in terms of economics: production, well-being and international trade. A shock is applied to global logistics using the computable general equilibrium model (GTAP 10). In the proposed scenario, all regions analyzed would experience a reduction in well-being, there would be a reduction in production and international trade, with a more relevant worsening in countries where the economy is more dependent on international trade. The proposed shock has effects similar to protectionist actions and has effects contrary to globalization.