Recent studies of the Colombian conflict have shown that while in its initial stage the element that bound illegal armed groups together was their ideology, the struggle for resource accumulation and territorial control kept them united over the years. Here, we modified a highly successful methodology from ecology (Ecological Niche Modelling) and applied it to the problem of determining the “niche” of a Colombian illegal armed group, named the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Specifically, by considering the FARC as a species, we analyzed some determining factors of its presence and permanence within the Colombian territory, which reflect aspects of the socioeconomic dynamics (fiscal performance index and mortality rate) and productive capacity (per capita income) of the Colombian municipalities. We found that regions with high suitability for the persistence of the FARC (i.e. those municipalities that belong to the niche of the species) had a fiscal performance index considered as vulnerable and low per capita income levels. Additionally, to identify territories in dispute between armed groups, we compared territories with the presence of both the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and the FARC. Our results also show that following the signing of the Peace Agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC, the number of municipalities with suitable conditions for its persistence was considerably reduced.
